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Projecting Future Tropical Cyclone Frequencies by Combining Uncertain Empirical Estimates of Baseline Frequencies with Climate Model Estimates of Change

Various studies have given projections for how frequencies of tropical cyclones (TCs) might change under climate change. In this study, we combine a set of such projections with uncertain estimates of frequencies of tropical cyclones in a baseline climate to produce probabilistic projections of tropical cyclone frequencies for the next 50 years.