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The Latest

Research

The latest research published by the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience, including Research Articles, Research Notes, and Reviews. All of these papers are subject to JCRR's peer-review process, meaning they have been externally vetted by independent experts to meet our high standards of scientific quality, relevance, and accuracy.

Research Article | 10.63024/dpva-2pa1

Assessing Future Tropical Cyclone Risk Using Downscaled CMIP6 Projections

Boniface O. Fosu1, Adam H. Sobel2,3, Chia-Ying Lee2, Suzana J. Camargo2, Michael K. Tippett3, Mona Hemmati2, Radovan Drinka4, Sri H. Polamuri4, Steven G. Bowen, Nadia Bloemendaal5,6

1Department of Geosciences, Northern Gulf Institute, Mississippi State University, MS State, MS;
2Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY;
3Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY;
4Aon, Impact Forecasting, Chicago, IL;
5Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;
6Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands

The authors employ the Columbia Hazard model (CHAZ) to characterise future tropical cyclone (TC) activity under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 by downscaling 12 models that participated in the Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project’s sixth generation (CMIP6), focusing on the Western North Pacific (WNP) and North Atlantic (ATL) basins.
September 4, 2024
Research Article | 10.63024/m9wk-3420

Projecting Future Tropical Cyclone Frequencies by Combining Uncertain Empirical Estimates of Baseline Frequencies with Climate Model Estimates of Change

Stephen Jewson1

1Lambda Climate Research Ltd, London, UK

Various studies have given projections for how frequencies of tropical cyclones (TCs) might change under climate change. In this study, we combine a set of such projections with uncertain estimates of frequencies of tropical cyclones in a baseline climate to produce probabilistic projections of tropical cyclone frequencies for the next 50 years.
July 23, 2024
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